Quantum Computing Is Advancing But Big Challenges Remain
WHAT IS QUANTUM COMPUTING?
The intriguing premise of quantum computing
Quantum computation incorporates some of the most mind-bending, revolutionary concepts from 20th-century physics. How revolutionary is quantum computing? Peter Chapman, CEO of quantum startup Ion, states, “The differences between quantum computers and classical computers are even more vast than those between classical computers and pen and pencil.” Currently, quantum computer development is similar to machine learning at the beginning of the last decade. So–we have a long way to go to achieve general-purpose quantum computing.
Unlike classical computer binary bits, quantum quibit (a qubit is six bits) can exist as a ‘superposition’ of both 1 and 0, resolving one way or the other only when measured.
Quantum computing exploits the quantum physics property of entanglement, in which changing the state of one qubit also changes the state of another, even at a great distance. Inextricably linked quibits, physicists can, in theory, exploit the interference between their wave-like quality. This is because when one of a pair of entangled qubits is measured, you immediately know the value of its partner–thereby allowing multiple algorithms to run simultaneously–and at a vast scale. Bottom line–this means that an operational, full-scale quantum computer could explore thousands, even millions of variables within minutes that would take classical computers tens of thousands of years to explore.
The litmus test for quantum computing coming of age is reaching quantum supremacy—i.e. when a quantum computer reaches its potential for outperforming the fastest classical computer. Although Google claimed it had achieved quantum supremacy in late 2019, other research organizations have disputed this claim because present-day quantum computers can only focus on solving one problem at a time. Specifically, Google’s proof of “quantum supremacy” involved algorithms specialized on one single mathematical problem and couldn’t be used for anything else. Google’s supposed breakthrough to quantum supremacy using a 54-quibit quantum computer was applied to a very delimited, single mathematical equation.
Peter Selinger, a mathematician, and a quantum-computing specialist at the Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada, estimates that computers will require several thousand quibits before they can usefully model chemical equations. Another example–quantum computing cannot yet calculate something as complex as the efficacy of different chemical structures in creating new drugs. So, until quantum technology reaches a stage where a broad spectrum of variables can successfully be explored in parallel, claims of quantum supremacy will not be credible.
A warning: It’s critical that ‘friendly’ nations/global players develop quantum computing first. If we don’t, all our high-security encryption will become transparent to malicious hackers. And when enemies inevitably develop that technology, we’ll need it, in turn, to build cryptography sophisticated enough to block attacks to our infrastructure. Unfortunately, our current computer security systems are already failing at that task.
Can Major Challenges Be Overcome?
The greatest challenge lies in building quantum computers that contain enough qubits to complete useful calculations. Leading-edge developers can provide no definite answer to how long this might take, though some have hazarded guesses. An IBM spokesperson recently announced that his company had created a roadmap for the development of a million-qubit system which he believes will be fault-tolerant within the next ten years. However, many doubt this kind of optimistic prediction. Even the latest, fastest quantum computers today have no more than 100 qubits and are plagued by random errors
One more critical step in achieving quantum supremacy will be creating an algorithm that prevents errors resulting from ‘noise’ that makes quibits unstable if not controlled.
Qubits are erratic: they are error-prone, hard to control, and always on the verge of falling out of their quantum state. Algorithms only work with fault-tolerant systems. It isn’t easy to foresee how soon we’ll reach a stage where quantum computers (with millions of quibits) will achieve anything approaching that level of stability. The greatest hope is that future research will reveal subtle nuances in the laws of physics that will lay the foundation for necessary future breakthroughs.
Those at the forefront of quantum research have already manipulated as many as ten atoms at a time by freezing (down to near absolute zero in some labs) and then manipulating them with lasers. This is to control for heat-induced vibration and other variables that easily disrupt connectivity at this extreme micro-level. It should be understood that auxiliary control equipment outside the computer (such as near absolute zero refrigerators) typically requires more power than the machine itself. –All computers generate heat, but quantum computers are fiery hot—plus, they’re highly susceptible to radiation and temperature fluctuations, to begin with. IBM points out that today’s commercial refrigerators will not be capable of effectively cooling a million-qubit computer. So, new refrigerators are requisite to moving forward. One proposed design is a 10-foot-tall and 6-foot-wide super-fridge.
The long-term challenge is to progressively increase the stability and size of quibit circuits. Scientists need to figure out how to deal with interference and the stubborn challenge of ‘decoherence,’–the result of the deterioration of quibits over time. In addition, despite the potential incredible speed of quantum computers, any minor error will result in computations needing to be repeated, detracting from their speed.
It’s unlikely that in 30 or so years, quantum computers will be available for use at work or in the home. Instead, it’s much more probable that our classical computers will connect with quantum computers in remote sessions. That is, of course, if and when and if we develop a workable communication methodology for quantum and classical computers. Currently, applicable computing languages like QCL, which are still in their infancy.
Finally, while solid passwords prevent even very powerful computers from cracking your passwords, one day, quantum computers may be able to do that. Even though far into the future, this puts ongoing pressure on governments and corporations to develop quantum computers that can block other quantum computers from ever having this capacity. If we don’t develop quantum computing first, our high-security encryption will become transparent to malicious hackers. And when enemies inevitably develop that technology, we’ll need it, in turn, to build cryptography sophisticated enough to block attacks to our infrastructure. Unfortunately, our current computer security systems are already failing at that task. So, it’s not only potential profit that governs the push towards quantum. It’s also the fear of governments and Fortune 100 corporations across most industries being left behind in the dust.
Why Quantum Computing Is Such a Hot Issue in The 2020s
Despite all these challenges, many advocates believe that impressive progress is on the horizon. For example, IBM hopes to have a 1,000-qubit machine by 2023, which could mark the start of early value creation in pharmaceuticals and chemicals.
There is widespread confidence that quantum computers will solve significant problems beyond the capacity of traditional computers. This is supported by the fact that equity investments in quantum computing nearly tripled in 2020, the busiest year on record, and are rising even faster in 2021. A word of caution, however: Lots of other technologies—genetic engineering, high-temperature superconductors, nanotechnology, and fusion energy come to mind—have gone through phases of ‘irrational exuberance’ on their way to extraordinary breakthroughs. And quantum computing is the most seductive and promising among all of them, so future (or present) ungrounded exuberance is a distinct possibility.
In 2021, IonQ became the first publicly traded ‘pure-play’ quantum computing company at an estimated initial valuation of $2 billion. One short-term optimistic projection is that a value of $5 billion to $10 billion could start accruing to users and providers as soon as the next three to five years. According to another estimate, the quantum computing market is projected to reach $64.98 billion by 2030. A third projection is that quantum computing could create a value of $450 billion to $850 billion in the next 15 to 30 years
One thing is clear for all potential players in quantum computing: no one can afford to sit on the sidelines any longer while competitors snap up internet protocol addresses, talent, and broader relationships. Even though a long road remains to the finish line, the field seems to be moving towards some critical milestones. This is evidenced by the fact that in the past two years, most leading quantum computing technology providers have released roadmaps marking out the critical milestones along the path to quantum supremacy over the next decade.
Also, in-use-case development has made good progress. Businesses have responded to this new wave of enthusiasm by specifying practical uses for quantum computers to tackle as they improve. Goldman Sachs recently announced that they could introduce quantum algorithms to price financial instruments in as soon as five years.
In 2016, IBM added a small quantum computer to the cloud. Anyone with an internet connection can now design and run their own quantum circuits on this computer to run their quantum experiments in fields ranging from chemistry to finance
Finally, the Canadian grocery chain Save-On-Foods has pioneered quantum computing technology to improve the management of its in-store logistics. In collaboration with the quantum computing company D-Wave, Save-On-Foods already sees promising results. The company’s engineers approached D-Wave with a logistics problem that classical computers could not solve. IT specialists took only two months to create a hybrid quantum algorithm that has reduced the computing time for some tasks from 25 hours per week to mere seconds.
Bottom line—while quantum computing isn’t going to take over the world right away. But it’s going to have a major impact in the next decade or two by working in full coordination with classical computers.
The Mind-Blowing Potential Benefits of Quantum Computing
Quantum computing is poised to have a revolutionary effect across many industries, ranging from healthcare and energy to finance and security.
Below is a preliminary list of the projected benefits–
- Experts expect quantum computing to help us make vast progress in understanding biology and evolution, cure cancer, and even take steps to reverse climate change.
- It can accelerate the development of drugs because quantum computers can efficiently model a practically complete set of possible molecular interactions. This is promising not only for drug candidate selection but also for identifying potential adverse effects via modeling (as opposed to having to wait for clinical trials) and even, in the long term, for creating personalized oncology drugs.
- Quantum computers can potentially take large manufacturing data sets on complex manufacturing operational failures when combined with a quantum-based algorithm to identify which part of a complex manufacturing process may have contributed to incidents of product failure. For products like microchips, where production can require thousands of steps, quantum could help reduce costly failures.
- Finance was one of the earliest industries to embrace Big Data. Quantum algorithms can significantly increase the speed of financial calculations. Much of the science behind the pricing of complex assets, such as stock options, involves combinatoric analysis;
- Improve chemical industry manufacturing;
- Desalinate seawater;
- Filter carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to curb climate change
- Handle problems of image and speech recognition;
- Provide real-time language translation;
- Greatly enhance big data processing for things like stock fluctuations and medical records; and
- Significantly enhance artificial intelligence, which relies on the accurate combinatoric processing of vast quantities of data to make better predictions and decisions (e.g., facial recognition or fraud detection)
Looking Forward–
In the 2020s, we will have quantum computers that are significantly better than supercomputers today, but they most likely won’t be in mass use by governments and corporations until the 2030s. Eventually–some experts say that toward the end of the 2030s and early 2040s–they’ll shrink down to a size and cost viable for widespread use. Before that point, even with the exponential growth of technology, it will not be cost-efficient for the average consumer to replace everyday computing with quantum computing.
